Centre to review Electricity plan as climate change skews demand forecasts

Evolving weather patterns, which are significantly impacting power demand and consumption, needs to be reviewed continuously to come up with more up-to-date projections in the national electricity plans. 

Power Ministry will review the peak power demand and supply projections in the National Electricity Plan (NEP) as changing climatic patterns, leading to growing instances of heat waves and humidity levels in the last few years, have led to a significant uptick in India’s electricity consumption. 

The year 2024 has been an exceptional year in terms of weather-related energy consumption. April-June was marked by sweltering temperatures coupled with intense heat waves across North India leading to a higher requirement for pushing up electricity demand. 

During April 2024, power consumption rose 11 per cent year on year, while the growth in May was steeper at 15 per cent. In June, the usage rose roughly 9 per cent. 

The constantly-evolving weather patterns have skewed the government’s electricity demand projections. For instance, the Ministry projected a peak demand (day) of 235 GW during May, but it hit an all-time high of 250 GW on May 30. The projection for June was 240 GW, but the demand went up to over 245 GW. 

Similarly, peak demand of 243 GW during September 2023 came as a surprise as it was not during the Summer months but at the end of the monsoon period, with high heat and humidity leading to more demand for cooling. In 2024, projections put September’s peak at 260 GW. 

Expert views 

Sector experts and analysts have welcomed the move. 

Arindam Ghosh, Partner – Power Advisory at Nangia & Co, said, “I agree that assessing the overall capacity requirement is essential, but it’s equally vital to analyse the mix of power plants — both scheduled and intermittent. This analysis should address varying levels of demand on monthly, weekly, daily and hourly bases, including seasonal variations. Such granularity is crucial for ensuring grid stability and reliable power supply.” 

n a recent policy brief, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) said that over 75 per cent of India’s coastline is susceptible to extreme weather events like cyclones and tsunamis, the most vulnerable being the eastern coastal States of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. 

CDRI pointed out that climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of catastrophic events. These extreme weather events severely affect critical infrastructure, including power systems, transportation networks, healthcare facilities and water supply systems. 

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis in a recent brief on Delhi weather highlighted a marked increase in the number of very hot and humid days, using 30°C Wet Bulb Temperature (WBT) as a threshold. 

Published in Hindu Business Line